Signal #1 –The Schannep Recession Indicator
signals the economy is in the early stage of a recession when the three-month moving average of the National Unemployment Rate rises by 0.4 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month average of the previous cyclical lows.
The data is usually reported on the first Friday of each month following the month reported on, and may be found at Bureau of Labor Statistics See Mark Hulbert’s recent MarketWatch article

The cyclical 3-month average low of 3.5% for the unemployment rate was during Feb (3.6%)- Mar (3.5%)- Apr (3.4%) of 2023.  The recent 3-month average rose to 3.9% during Mar (3.8%)- Apr (3.9%)- May (4.0%) of 2024 for a 
0.4% INCREASE
The Current Status:  Since the May data was reported the threshold of a 0.4% gain signaled that a recession is underway.  The June 2024 level rose to 4.1%. Expect the NBER to report later this year that the recession was underway in May of 2024.

This indicator was originally described in a 2000 Special Report at TheDowTheory.com and later published in the 2008 book, Dow Theory For the 21st Century by Jack Schannep.  A snippet from the book updated to 2024 follows a section entitled “About Recessions”: How to Know if One is Occurring.  A rising unemployment rate can be one way of knowing that a recession is occurring.

“On 13 (updated) occasions since 1948, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics data on the civilian labor force unemployment rate began, the level has risen four-tenths of a percentage point on a three-month moving average basis from the cyclical low three-month average.  On all 13 (updated)… a recession was just starting or was about to begin…(note: once the indicator was 6 months early but then a second signal was given during that coming recession).”  All 12 recessions were thus signaled, none missed.

The Schannep Recession Indicator identifies recessions as they occur, long before the quasi-official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), proclaims them retrospectively.  In all cases since back testing to1948 and from 2000 forward in real time, the Schannep Recession Indicator has identified each recession early on within its peak to trough defined timeframe of a recession, as later announced by the NBER.  This Indicator can be used as a Sell indicator as the average further drop after the signal has been -16%.
BOOKMARK THIS WEBSITE FOR TYPICAL FOLLOW-ON SIGNALS:
Signal #2 Bear market identified
(additional Sell signal)
Signal #3 Bear market lows (as identified by our Capitulation Buy Indicator)
Signal #4 Bull market identified (additional Buy signal)
Signal #5 Schannep Recession Ended Indicator